What Does ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ACIW) Share Price Indicate?

ACI Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACIW), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NASDAQGS, rising to highs of US$35.15 and falling to the lows of US$29.52. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether ACI Worldwide's current trading price of US$31.92 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at ACI Worldwide’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for ACI Worldwide

Is ACI Worldwide still cheap?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that ACI Worldwide’s ratio of 43.91x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 43.94x, which means if you buy ACI Worldwide today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe that ACI Worldwide should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because ACI Worldwide’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from ACI Worldwide?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for ACI Worldwide. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? ACIW’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at ACIW? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on ACIW, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for ACIW, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for ACI Worldwide and we think they deserve your attention.

If you are no longer interested in ACI Worldwide, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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