Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

There's been a notable change in appetite for Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 13% to US$176. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$252m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.07. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Onto Innovation after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Onto Innovation

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Onto Innovation's nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.15b in 2025. This would reflect a huge 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 51% to US$5.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.56 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$258. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Onto Innovation analyst has a price target of US$280 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$230. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Onto Innovation is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 18% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 18% per year. So although Onto Innovation is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$258, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Onto Innovation going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Onto Innovation's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.