Does Rigetti (RGTI) Hype Around Quantum Milestones Outrun Its Fragile Near‑Term Revenue Base?

• In recent weeks, Rigetti Computing has drawn fresh attention as analyst upgrades and growing social media buzz have highlighted its quantum computing roadmap, high-profile cloud and government partnerships, and long-dated milestones such as a planned 1,000‑plus qubit system by 2027.
• At the same time, management’s expectation of limited commercial sales for at least three to five years, alongside declining revenue, continued losses, heavy reliance on government contracts, and extensive insider share sales, has raised questions about how much of today’s enthusiasm is supported by near-term fundamentals.
• We’ll now examine how this contrast between ambitious long-term quantum goals and weak current revenue trends shapes Rigetti’s investment narrative.

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What Is Rigetti Computing's Investment Narrative?

To own Rigetti today, you have to buy into a very long runway: the idea that its vertically integrated quantum platform, cloud access via Microsoft and Amazon, and defense ties ultimately translate into meaningful commercial demand years from now. The latest burst of analyst upgrades, social media excitement and a huge rally in the share price reinforces those long-term hopes but does little to change the near-term picture of falling revenue, large losses of about US$199 million in the first nine months of 2025, and a business still leaning heavily on lumpy government contracts. If anything, the combination of exuberant price gains, a valuation of over 1,000 times sales in recent commentary, and substantial insider selling makes sentiment itself a key short-term catalyst and a growing risk for new shareholders.

However, behind the excitement, Rigetti’s dependence on unpredictable contracts and funding cycles is something investors should understand. Our valuation report unveils the possibility Rigetti Computing's shares may be trading at a premium.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Across 48 fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community, Rigetti’s perceived worth spans from just US$0.22 to US$39.67 per share, with opinions spread across the entire range. That breadth of views sits against a backdrop of weakening recent revenue, high cash burn and a story that relies heavily on distant quantum milestones, giving you plenty of reason to compare multiple perspectives before making up your own mind.

Explore 48 other fair value estimates on Rigetti Computing - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Rigetti Computing Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Rigetti Computing research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Rigetti Computing research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Rigetti Computing's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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