Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ:NXPI) After Its First-Quarter Results

It's been a pretty great week for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ:NXPI) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$256 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. NXP Semiconductors reported US$3.1b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.47 beat expectations, being 3.3% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NXP Semiconductors after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for NXP Semiconductors

Taking into account the latest results, NXP Semiconductors' 26 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$13.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$11.15, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$13.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.65 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on NXP Semiconductors' earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$259, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NXP Semiconductors at US$300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$150. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await NXP Semiconductors shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that NXP Semiconductors' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards NXP Semiconductors following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that NXP Semiconductors' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NXP Semiconductors. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple NXP Semiconductors analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for NXP Semiconductors that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.