Will Micron's (MU) Upgraded Guidance and HBM Surge Redefine Its AI Margin Narrative?

• Earlier this month, Micron Technology raised its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting revenue of US$11.2 billion ± US$100 million and diluted earnings per share of US$2.64 ± US$0.07, up from its previous outlook.
• This improved outlook reflects Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply for 2025 and ongoing strong demand tied to AI infrastructure expansion.
• We'll examine how Micron's improved HBM demand outlook now shapes its investment narrative and future margin expectations.

The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 20 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.

Micron Technology Investment Narrative Recap

Micron’s investment story is now tightly linked to the global race for AI-centric memory solutions, with its recent Q4 guidance upgrade underscoring just how central high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand has become. This development bolsters the main short-term catalyst, strength in AI infrastructure spending, while doing little to reduce the ongoing risk of fierce competition from major Asian memory players, who still pose a challenge to Micron’s pricing power and margins.

The latest announcement of Micron’s sold-out HBM supply for 2025 is central to this narrative, as it highlights the company’s capacity to capture profit expansion through product mix shifts toward higher-value memory solutions. This achievement points directly to the margin uplift that shareholders are focused on, aligned with the current guidance boost and analyst optimism about further margin improvement.

Yet in contrast, investors should be aware that heightened supply from global competitors threatens the durability of Micron’s margin gains if...

Read the full narrative on Micron Technology (it's free!)

Micron Technology's narrative projects $53.4 billion in revenue and $13.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 16.5% annual revenue growth and a $7.2 billion increase in earnings from the current $6.2 billion.

Uncover how Micron Technology's forecasts yield a $149.71 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Across 51 Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates, opinions on Micron’s worth vary sharply from US$69.18 to US$197.17 per share. As excitement grows around Micron’s HBM-driven margin expansion, keep in mind that diverging investor assumptions may reflect both technical promise and the unresolved risks of sector competition.

Explore 51 other fair value estimates on Micron Technology - why the stock might be worth as much as 68% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Micron Technology Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Micron Technology research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Micron Technology research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Micron Technology's overall financial health at a glance.

Searching For A Fresh Perspective?

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

• AI is about to change healthcare. These 27 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
• This technology could replace computers: discover 23 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.
• Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com