What Do New US Chip Manufacturing Demands Mean for Marvell Technology’s Valuation in 2025?

If you have Marvell Technology in your portfolio or on your radar, you are probably asking: is this stock now a buy, sell, or hold? That’s a fair question after the wild ride shareholders have experienced this year. In just 30 days, Marvell rocketed up by over 40.4%, easily outpacing most of its semiconductor peers, and adding a solid 7.9% just in the last week. But step back and the picture gets a bit more complicated, with shares still sitting 21.7% lower year-to-date, even after posting an impressive 21.0% gain over the past year and an eye-catching 123.1% return across three years.

Much of this recent surge is tied to shifting winds in chip policy and global manufacturing. The U.S. government’s push to bring semiconductor production stateside is ramping up, with new policies nudging chipmakers and their investors to rethink where the sector’s real growth will come from. Ongoing chatter about tariffs and trade investigations, especially those involving Taiwan and China, have only added to the volatility. Investors are betting that companies poised to benefit from a more domestic supply chain might ride the next wave of outsized growth.

Given all these moving parts, there has never been a better time to dig into Marvell’s valuation. By classic measures, the company manages to look undervalued in just 1 out of 6 key checks, resulting in a value score of 1. But how much should that shape your decision right now? Let’s break down the different approaches analysts use to value Marvell and explore whether there’s a smarter way to look at the numbers than simply relying on a basic scorecard.

Marvell Technology scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Marvell Technology Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to their present value. For Marvell Technology, analysts expect Free Cash Flow (FCF) over the next several years to grow steadily, starting from the current FCF of $1.48 billion last year.

Looking ahead, analyst estimates cover up to 5 years, with projections extended to 10 years using Simply Wall St’s modeling. These forward-looking numbers suggest Marvell’s cash flow could reach $4.23 billion by 2030. Projections for each year are based on a combination of direct analyst estimates and longer-term growth extrapolations.

Bringing these future cash flows back to today, the DCF model calculates an intrinsic fair value of $62.86 per share. However, Marvell’s stock price currently sits well above this, implying the shares are roughly 41.5% overvalued according to the model.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Marvell Technology.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Marvell Technology may be overvalued by 41.5%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Marvell Technology Price vs Sales

For profitable companies, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a widely used valuation metric, especially in the semiconductor space where revenue growth can sometimes outpace actual earnings due to fluctuating costs or heavy reinvestment. It provides a clear snapshot of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company’s sales, which can be particularly insightful in competitive growth sectors like chips.

When evaluating what counts as a "normal" or "fair" P/S ratio, it is important to consider growth prospects and risk. Companies with higher growth potential typically trade at higher P/S multiples, while added risk or weaker profitability often results in a lower ratio.

Marvell Technology is currently trading at a P/S ratio of 10.60x. This is more than double the semiconductor industry average of 4.90x, but remains below its peer group average of 18.67x. To provide more context, Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" for Marvell is calculated at 10.50x, a figure tailored for the company based on its specific growth forecasts, profit margins, risk profile, industry factors, and market cap.

Unlike broad peer or industry comparisons, the Fair Ratio is designed to reflect what is reasonable for Marvell's unique situation, factoring in not just general industry trends, but also the company’s growth outlook, scale, and profitability. This can help investors avoid overestimating or underestimating the stock based on more general benchmarks.

With Marvell’s actual P/S of 10.60x landing very close to its Fair Ratio, it suggests the market is pricing its sales accurately.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Marvell Technology Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative, in investing, is simply the story you believe about a company: what will really drive its future revenue, earnings, and margins, and how that story connects to a financial forecast and an estimated fair value. Rather than relying solely on generic multiples or analyst targets, Narratives let you combine your own perspective with what you think will happen next for Marvell Technology, helping you clarify why the numbers make sense to you.

This approach is simple, accessible, and already being used by millions of investors on Simply Wall St’s Community page. Narratives empower you to track and update your assumptions as fresh news or earnings results are published. As soon as circumstances change, you can adjust your Narrative and instantly see how your idea of fair value shifts compared to the market price. For example, one investor might craft a bullish Narrative for Marvell based on its rapid AI cloud design wins and forecast strong profit margins, resulting in a high fair value. Another user, more cautious about competition and reliance on big data center customers, could project slower earnings growth, landing at a much lower fair value.

By building and tracking your own Narrative, you can make buy or sell decisions with clarity, confidence, and context that goes far beyond basic ratios or consensus targets.

• Most optimistic fair value for Marvell Technology: $122.00 per share
• Most cautious fair value for Marvell Technology: $58.20 per share

With Narratives, you decide which story and valuation make the most sense for your investing goals.

Do you think there's more to the story for Marvell Technology? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com