Analysts Are Updating Their First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) Estimates After Its Yearly Results

The yearly results for First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.3b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$7.74 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for First Solar

After the latest results, the 29 analysts covering First Solar are now predicting revenues of US$4.53b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 74% to US$13.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.56b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.47 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$223, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on First Solar, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$359 and the most bearish at US$170 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that First Solar's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 36% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that First Solar is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for First Solar going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for First Solar that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.