Enphase Energy, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.2% to close at US$65.27 following the release of its annual results. Revenues were US$1.3b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.76 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Enphase Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Enphase Energy's 32 analysts is for revenues of US$1.55b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 137% to US$1.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.69b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.11 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$84.21, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Enphase Energy's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Enphase Energy at US$145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$54.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Enphase Energy'shistorical trends, as the 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. So although Enphase Energy is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Enphase Energy. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$84.21, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Enphase Energy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Enphase Energy you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.