Macy's (M) Valuation After Tony Spring’s Overhaul, Store Closures, and Upgraded Earnings Guidance

Macy's (M) is back in the spotlight after CEO Tony Spring doubled down on a sweeping overhaul, closing roughly a third of U.S. stores while still raising full year 2025 sales guidance.

See our latest analysis for Macy's.

Those moves seem to be resonating with investors, with the share price at $23.84 and a strong year to date share price return of 43.96%, while the five year total shareholder return of 171.11% suggests this turnaround story has been building for a while.

If Macy's shake up has you rethinking retail, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with revenue under pressure and the share price racing ahead of analyst targets, the key question now is whether Macy's still trades at a discount to its true potential or if markets are already pricing in the turnaround.

Most Popular Narrative: 9.9% Overvalued

Macy's last closed at $23.84, above the most followed narrative's fair value of $21.70, setting up a tension between market optimism and modeled fundamentals.

Ongoing modernization efforts, including end to end operational automation and technology upgrades, are expected to drive continued SG&A savings and supply chain efficiencies, supporting stronger adjusted EBITDA and longer term margin expansion as the company capitalizes on the need for seamless, tech enabled retail experiences.

Read the complete narrative.

If you want to see what kind of margin lift and earnings power those upgrades are meant to unlock, and what future multiple that could support, explore the full narrative for the detailed roadmap behind that $21.70 fair value and the assumptions that put Macy's slightly behind its current share price.

Result: Fair Value of $21.70 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent shifts to e commerce, along with pressure on margins from tariffs and pricing missteps, could undercut Macy's turnaround assumptions and valuation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Macy's narrative.

Another Angle on Value

While the most popular narrative sees Macy's as 9.9% overvalued, our DCF model points the other way. It estimates fair value at $28.15 per share, implying the stock is undervalued despite recent gains. Which story better captures the next leg of this turnaround?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Macy's Narrative

If you see the story playing out differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Macy's research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for your next investing move?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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