Macy's (M) Is Up 5.7% After Raising 2025 Sales Guidance Despite Lower Q3 Profit - What's Changed

• Macy’s, Inc. reported past third-quarter 2025 results showing relatively stable revenue of US$4.91 billion but lower net income of US$11 million, while management raised full-year 2025 net sales guidance to US$21.48 billion–US$21.63 billion and forecast fourth-quarter net sales of about US$7.35 billion–US$7.50 billion.
• The company’s higher guidance, alongside progress in its “Bold New Chapter” restructuring and a completed buyback of 40.88 million shares, highlights management’s confidence that store optimization and brand investments are beginning to gain traction despite ongoing store closures.
• Now we’ll examine how Macy’s raised full-year revenue guidance reshapes its investment narrative and what it could mean for investors.

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Macy's Investment Narrative Recap

To own Macy’s, you need to believe its “Bold New Chapter” can offset store closures by driving better productivity in remaining stores and digital, while stabilizing earnings. The raised 2025 net sales guidance and solid Q4 outlook support the near term catalyst of an improving omni-channel experience, but softer profits keep the main risk firmly in view: whether Macy’s can grow margins while closing underperforming locations.

The completion of Macy’s US$826.21 million buyback, retiring about 14.36% of shares, is especially relevant here, because it tightens the link between any future earnings recovery and per share outcomes. For investors focused on catalysts, this capital return decision sits alongside store optimization efforts and higher guidance as key elements shaping how much operating progress ultimately shows up in shareholder returns.

Yet against these encouraging signals, one important risk investors should be aware of is Macy’s ongoing exposure to softer physical store demand and...

Read the full narrative on Macy's (it's free!)

Macy's narrative projects $18.5 billion revenue and $663.0 million earnings by 2028. This assumes revenues decline by 6.5% per year and earnings rise by about $169.0 million from $494.0 million today.

Uncover how Macy's forecasts yield a $21.70 fair value, a 10% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$21.70 to US$32.00, showing how far apart individual views on Macy’s future can be. When you weigh those opinions against the raised sales guidance and still thin profit margins, it becomes even more important to compare different scenarios for how store closures and omni-channel investments might impact long term performance.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Macy's - why the stock might be worth as much as 33% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Macy's Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Macy's research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Macy's research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Macy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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