The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

As you might know, The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) recently reported its annual numbers. Home Depot reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$160b and statutory earnings per share of US$14.91, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Home Depot

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Home Depot from 35 analysts is for revenues of US$164.3b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 3.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$14.86, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$164.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.57 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$431, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Home Depot, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$484 and the most bearish at US$292 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Home Depot's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 5.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Home Depot is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Home Depot. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$431, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Home Depot. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Home Depot going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Home Depot that you need to take into consideration.

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