Tesla’s Future Valuation: A Deep Dive into 2030 Predictions
1. Introduction: Why This Matters
Tesla is no longer just an automaker—it’s evolving into a technology powerhouse with AI, robotics, energy, and software. Given its current revenue of ~$97.7 billion (2024) and its potential in multiple industries, I set out to estimate Tesla’s future valuation in 2030 and determine a fair stock price today.
2. How I Built My 2030 Projections
I broke Tesla down into five major revenue streams:
• Optimus Robots: Scaling humanoid robot production for manufacturing & home use.
• Batteries & Energy Storage: Growing demand for Megapacks, Powerwalls, and grid storage.
• FSD (Full Self-Driving) & Software: High-margin AI revenue from subscriptions & Robotaxis.
• Automotive: EV sales + Robotaxi network.
• Energy (Solar & Grid Solutions): Expanding Tesla’s renewable energy business.
By estimating realistic growth rates, I projected Tesla’s 2030 total revenue at $1.94 trillion with a net profit of $534 billionand a net profit margin of 27.5%.
3. Estimating Tesla’s Fair Value in 2024
To determine what Tesla’s stock should be worth today, I:
1. Projected Tesla’s 2030 Market Cap based on P/E ratios:
• Bear Case (P/E = 25): $13.35 trillion
• Base Case (P/E = 35): $18.69 trillion
• Bull Case (P/E = 50): $26.70 trillion
2. Discounted these values back to 2024 using a 12% discount rate.
3. Divided by Tesla’s 3.19 billion shares outstanding to estimate a fair stock price today:
• Bear Case: $2,120/share
• Base Case: $2,968/share
• Bull Case: $4,240/share
4. The Shocking Conclusion
Tesla’s current stock price (~$180-$200) is drastically below these estimates, suggesting it could be one of the most undervalued stocks today—if it executes on AI, FSD, and energy at scale.
Of course, risks remain (competition, execution, regulations), but the upside is massive. If Tesla achieves its full vision, a share price in the thousands is not unrealistic.
Would you buy Tesla today based on these numbers? Or do you think growth expectations are too ambitious?
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user grew holds no position in NasdaqGS:TSLA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
