Assuming Tesla successfully competes with Uber in all markets with 10 million robotaxis and produces 10 million Optimus robots per year by 2030, while its EV business follows its current trajectory, a reasonable share price estimate is approximately $2,500, implying an $8 trillion market cap. This assumes significant execution success, 30–50% robotaxi market share, and Optimus adoption. However, risks (regulation, competition, delays) could push the price as low as $625–$938, while a bull case could see $3,750–$4,688.
- EV and Energy Business: $280 billion (current trajectory, ~25% of current market cap).
- Robotaxi Business: $5.6 trillion.
- Optimus Business: $2.1 trillion.
- Total Enterprise Value: $280 billion + $5.6 trillion + $2.1 trillion = $7.98 trillion.
- Market Cap: Assuming minimal debt changes, market cap ≈ enterprise value ≈ $8 trillion.
- Share Price: $8 trillion ÷ 3.2 billion shares = $2,500/share.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user ValueStacker holds no position in NasdaqGS:TSLA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
