Caleres (NYSE:CAL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CAL ($27.22) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($89.93)

CAL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

CAL Stock Overview

Caleres, Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale of footwear in the United States, Canada, China, and Guam.

Rewards

Trading at 69.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Caleres Competitors

Designer Brands

NYSE:DBI

US$1.0b

Guess'

NYSE:GES

US$1.1b

Abercrombie & Fitch

NYSE:ANF

US$951.9m

Genesco

NYSE:GCO

US$777.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Caleres
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$27.22
52 Week High	US$29.94
52 Week Low	US$17.82
Beta	2.08
1 Month Change	-8.13%
3 Month Change	37.82%
1 Year Change	2.64%
3 Year Change	43.72%
5 Year Change	-4.39%
Change since IPO	120.70%

Shareholder Returns

	CAL	US Specialty Retail	US Market
7D	-3.2%	4.8%	6.3%
1Y	2.6%	-27.1%	-18.8%

Return vs Industry: CAL exceeded the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -27.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CAL exceeded the US Market which returned -18.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CAL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CAL volatility
CAL Average Weekly Movement	11.3%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: CAL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CAL's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1878	7,200	Diane Sullivan	https://www.caleres.com

Caleres, Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale of footwear in the United States, Canada, China, and Guam. It operates through Famous Footwear and Brand Portfolio segments. The company offers licensed, branded, and private-label athletic, casual, and dress footwear products to women, men, and children.

Caleres Fundamentals Summary

How do Caleres's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CAL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.04b
Earnings (TTM)	US$174.59m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.87b

5.7x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is CAL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CAL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.87b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.59b
Gross Profit	US$1.28b
Other Expenses	US$1.10b
Earnings	US$174.59m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.75
Gross Margin	44.52%
Net Profit Margin	6.07%
Debt/Equity Ratio	85.2%

How did CAL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.0%

Current Dividend Yield

6%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CAL. This is calculated by dividing CAL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CAL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.04b

CAL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.3x
PEG Ratio	12.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CAL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.9x
DBI Designer Brands	6x	1.5%	US$1.0b
GES Guess'	6.5x	18.9%	US$1.1b
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch	4.5x	-17.0%	US$951.9m
GCO Genesco	6.8x	n/a	US$777.2m
CAL Caleres	5.7x	0.5%	US$1.0b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (6.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.7x
Fair PE Ratio	10.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAL ($27.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($89.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CAL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (12.3x)

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Future Growth

How is Caleres forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

0.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CAL's forecast earnings growth (0.5% per year) is below the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: CAL's earnings (0.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CAL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CAL's revenue (1.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CAL's revenue (1.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CAL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.3%)

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Caleres performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CAL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CAL became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CAL has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -27.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: CAL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CAL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Specialty Retail industry (40.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CAL's Return on Equity (50.8%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Caleres's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CAL's short term assets ($933.6M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: CAL's short term assets ($933.6M) exceed its long term liabilities ($500.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CAL's net debt to equity ratio (75.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CAL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 45.2% to 85.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CAL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (38.6%).

Interest Coverage: CAL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (12x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Caleres's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.03%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: CAL's dividend (1.03%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: CAL's dividend (1.03%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CAL's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CAL's dividend payments have not increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (5.9%), CAL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (12%), CAL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Diane Sullivan (65 yo)

11.08yrs

Tenure

US$10,196,791

Compensation

Ms. Diane M. Sullivan has been the Chairman of Caleres, Inc. since February 2, 2014 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since May 26, 2011 and was its President since January 2004 until December 2, 20...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Diane's total compensation ($USD10.20M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.00M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Diane's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CAL's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CAL's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CAL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/28 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/30
Annual Earnings	2022/01/29