Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Caleres, Inc. (NYSE:CAL) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Caleres
What Is Caleres's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Caleres had US$146.5m of debt in August 2024, down from US$244.0m, one year before. However, it does have US$51.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$94.7m.
How Healthy Is Caleres' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Caleres had liabilities of US$860.4m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$546.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$51.8m and US$156.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.20b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$1.14b, we think shareholders really should watch Caleres's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Caleres's net debt is only 0.39 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 12.1 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Caleres saw its EBIT drop by 2.5% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Caleres can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Caleres's free cash flow amounted to 49% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Even if we have reservations about how easily Caleres is capable of staying on top of its total liabilities, its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA make us think feel relatively unconcerned. We think that Caleres's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. Given our hesitation about the stock, it would be good to know if Caleres insiders have sold any shares recently. You click here to find out if insiders have sold recently.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:CAL
Caleres
Engages in the retail and wholesale of footwear business in the United States, Canada, East Asia, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and undervalued.