Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) just handed investors a set of first-quarter earnings figures that are hard to ignore. With both revenue and net income showing solid jumps from last year, the latest report has sparked new conversations about where the stock could be headed next. For investors who have been wondering whether to hold steady or make a move, this earnings update may feel like the kind of catalyst that tips the scales in one direction or another.
So far this year, Alibaba's stock has gained momentum, rising over 58% year-to-date and delivering a 65% total return over the past twelve months. This earnings-driven move follows recent board meetings and scheduled earnings calls, but it is really the results themselves—steady revenue expansion and a clear recovery in profitability—that have shifted market sentiment. After several years of mixed performances, this year’s upswing hints that investors are warming back up to the company's growth story.
With such a sharp reversal in fortunes, the big questions are back on the table: Is Alibaba trading at a discount, or has the market already priced in this bounce in growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 26.1% Overvalued
According to the narrative by StefanoF, Alibaba is currently trading above its fair value. This reflects the market’s optimism about near-term growth and operational progress. This perspective suggests investors may be paying a premium for recent momentum instead of underlying fundamentals.
Alibaba delivered solid FY2025 results, with revenue growing 6% to RMB 996.3 billion ($137.3B). Key highlights include core e-commerce (Taobao/Tmall) customer management revenue growing 12%, Cloud Intelligence revenue accelerating to 18% growth, and AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Want a glimpse behind Alibaba’s headline growth? This narrative relies on a blend of rapid product expansion and ambitious long-term cash flow projections. What bold financial assumptions support that premium price? The real surprise is in the details you haven’t seen yet.
Result: Fair Value of $107.09 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.However, ongoing US-China trade tensions and persistent regulatory pressures could quickly alter Alibaba’s outlook and challenge the current optimism in the market.
Find out about the key risks to this Alibaba Group Holding narrative.Another View: DCF Suggests Undervaluation
Our DCF model presents a very different picture, indicating that Alibaba might actually be undervalued based on projected cash flows rather than recent market sentiment. Could the true value be found in the fundamentals?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.Build Your Own Alibaba Group Holding Narrative
If you see things differently or want to dig deeper into Alibaba’s numbers, you can build your own perspective quickly and easily. You can get started and finish in just minutes. Do it your way
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Alibaba Group Holding.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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