Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On AutoNation, Inc.'s (NYSE:AN) Full-Year Report

AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE:AN) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. AutoNation reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$27b and statutory earnings per share of US$16.92, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for AutoNation

Following the latest results, AutoNation's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$27.3b in 2025. This would be a satisfactory 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.2% to US$18.47. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.89 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on AutoNation's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$205, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AutoNation analyst has a price target of US$240 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$180. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AutoNation's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AutoNation's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AutoNation.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards AutoNation following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AutoNation's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$205, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AutoNation. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AutoNation going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for AutoNation (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.