RealReal (REAL) Is Down 14.0% After Trump Tariff Threats Spark Tech and Retail Selloff – Has the Bull Case Changed?

• Earlier this week, President Trump reignited trade war fears by threatening significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to widespread selling across the technology and retail sectors, including RealReal.
• This rekindled uncertainty points to the sensitivity of consumer-facing companies like RealReal to global supply chain disruptions and cost pressures from geopolitical developments.
• We’ll examine how these renewed tariff concerns could amplify industry-wide cost and supply chain risks within RealReal’s current investment narrative.

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RealReal Investment Narrative Recap

To believe in RealReal as a shareholder, you need confidence in the long-term growth of authenticated, sustainable luxury resale, driven by younger buyers and continuous operational improvements. While the recent tariff threats have sparked volatility across retail stocks, their direct impact on RealReal’s near-term catalyst, expanding supply and operational efficiency, appears limited, but cost pressures from global supply chains remain a background risk to watch. Among recent announcements, management’s decision to raise full-year 2025 revenue guidance to US$667 million–US$674 million stands out. This upward revision is a sign that the company continues to expand transaction volumes and attract new consignors, reinforcing ongoing supply growth as a key driver, even as external factors like tariffs threaten broader industry margins. By contrast, it’s important for investors to be aware that even with AI-driven cost reductions, RealReal’s platform take rate...

Read the full narrative on RealReal (it's free!)

RealReal's narrative projects $842.8 million revenue and $40.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.8% yearly revenue growth and a $75.4 million earnings increase from the current earnings of -$35.4 million.

Uncover how RealReal's forecasts yield a $10.83 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provide two fair value estimates for RealReal, ranging from US$10.83 to US$28.99 per share. While RealReal is raising guidance and focusing on supply growth, contrasting opinions within the Community highlight how investor views on risks like commission rate pressure can shape expectations.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on RealReal - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own RealReal Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your RealReal research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free RealReal research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate RealReal's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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