OneWater Marine Inc. Just Missed EPS By 54%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

OneWater Marine Inc. (NASDAQ:ONEW) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$542m missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.99 fell short of forecasts by 54%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for OneWater Marine

Following the latest results, OneWater Marine's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.95b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. OneWater Marine is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$3.63 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.87 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.2% to US$30.00. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on OneWater Marine, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$34.00 and the most bearish at US$27.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that OneWater Marine is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that OneWater Marine's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 142 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while OneWater Marine's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for OneWater Marine. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of OneWater Marine's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for OneWater Marine going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for OneWater Marine (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com