Optimistic Investors Push Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVE) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVE) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 47% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Five Below's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.4x is worth a mention when the median P/E in the United States is similar at about 18x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Recent times have been pleasing for Five Below as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to deteriorate like the rest, which has kept the P/E from rising. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Five Below

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How Is Five Below's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Five Below's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.2%. The latest three year period has also seen a 10% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 7.3% per annum over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Five Below is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Five Below's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Five Below currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Five Below that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Five Below, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.