FIVE Stock Overview
Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States.
Five Below, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$141.25|
|52 Week High||US$221.00|
|52 Week Low||US$109.49|
|1 Month Change||8.80%|
|3 Month Change||15.44%|
|1 Year Change||-17.17%|
|3 Year Change||12.43%|
|5 Year Change||150.49%|
|Change since IPO||433.02%|
Recent News & Updates
Is It Time To Consider Buying Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVE)?
Five Below, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FIVE ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20...
Five Below's Q2 2022: Doubling Down On The Downturn
Summary Five Below reported soft earnings in Q2, providing lower-than-expected results and guidance. The company faced more headwinds than expected which led to poor performance. Management expects to benefit materially from the downturn thanks to its strong financial position and opportunistic counter-cyclical investments. The highlight of the release was expected store growth, which is a leading indicator of sales. The Triple-Double long-term vision remains intact, and that’s what we, as long-term shareholders, care about. Introduction Five Below (FIVE) reported its Q2 earnings this week. This article aims to answer two questions: "Were the Q2 earnings good?" and "Is the long-term thesis intact?" Simply put, the answer to the first question is a resounding no. This is pretty evident if we look at how the company fared against the estimates: Consensus Gurus It was pretty much a miss across the board in Q2 but also in Q3 and FY guidance. The table above is not enough to answer the second question, so we must dig a bit deeper. We can also learn more by listening to management's comments. So, without further ado, let's get started. The numbers Five Below reported bad numbers in Q2, especially in the top line. On the bottom line, the company again demonstrated excellent cost control. This shows it's a master in controlling profitability. Before digging into the top and bottom lines, let's review the headline results. The headline numbers Q2 sales came in at $669 million, up 3.5% year over year. This number met neither analysts' nor management's expectations: Made by Best Anchor Stocks As in Q1, the good news was on the bottom line. Despite the lower sales, the company managed to fall inside its guidance, although it missed analysts' estimates: Made by Best Anchor Stocks The divergence between sales and earnings demonstrated once again that Five Below can control its costs in most environments and protect margins, all despite operating in the value retail space where flexibility is limited. This is especially important when times are tough, as an essential part of any long-term holding is its ability to weather challenging periods. There's no denying, however, that the headline numbers were not great. Beats on the top and bottom lines would've been better, but we must focus on the long term and be prepared to face challenging periods because they will inevitably come. Maybe they are already here. The top-line drivers: comparable sales and new stores Five Below has two main drivers of its top line: comparable sales and new store openings. Comparable sales refer to the increase or decrease in sales from stores that were already open in the comparable period. So, for example, comparable sales for Q2 2022 will be a calculation using only the changes in sales from those stores that were already open during Q2 2021. New store openings are pretty much self-explanatory. Last quarter, sales came in lower than expectations because comparable sales came in softer (store openings came in line), but this quarter it was a combination of both. Comparable sales come in lower than expectations again Comparable sales decreased 5.8% year over year, failing to meet analysts' and management's expectations: Made by Best Anchor Stocks Comparable sales also have two underlying growth drivers: average ticket and number of transactions. Average ticket decreased by 4.3%, and transactions decreased by 1.7%. When it comes to Five Below, we prefer the average ticket price to be responsible for the decrease in same store sales. Our reasoning is that the company is more in control of average ticket than traffic, because of initiatives like Five Beyond, which has items of more than $5. Seeing the number of transactions decrease might mean that traffic is plummeting, which would be worse for Five Below than its customers temporarily spending less. If the customer is in the store, management has more flexibility to lead them to spend more. It's also important to zoom out when analyzing comparable sales. Last year, government incentives created a huge pull forward in comparable sales for Five Below, and unlapping these comps amidst macro weakness is not ideal. It's also true that last year's comps faced easy comps during the pandemic year: Made by Best Anchor Stocks The result of these unusual times is that it's complicated to make sense of these volatile numbers. For this reason, zooming out can help us understand the long-term trend. On a three-year basis, comparable sales increased 15%, a 4.7% CAGR. This is much more in line with the long-term expectations, and it's what we should really focus on. Rarely does growth come in a straight line, especially amidst unprecedented events. New store openings come out below expectations While last quarter management opened precisely what they expected to open, they fell slightly short this quarter. Five Below opened 27 new stores, falling below its expectations of 30 stores. These stores were opened across 18 states and helped the company end the quarter with 1,252 stores: Made by Best Anchor Stocks The total number of stores last quarter plus the Q2 openings shows us that Five Below didn't close a single store, which it has rarely done throughout its history, unlike other retailers. Of course, we don't know when these stores were opened during the quarter, so it's difficult to quantify their impact on this quarter's sales. For example, if almost all stores were opened towards the end of the quarter, their impact would be deferred to Q3. What we do know is that new store productivity ('NSP') is coming slightly below pre-pandemic levels. NSP is the ratio between the sales added for each square foot added. So, for example, if this ratio is 100%, each new square foot adds a similar level of sales. This was the case for Five Below before the pandemic, but this has come down to 80% on an adjusted basis. Of course, this worried some analysts who asked about cannibalization. Management argued that cannibalization is not the cause of the reduced productivity, but rather a focus on existing stores due to supply chain shortages: There is a couple of things going on there, especially post-pandemic where we pulled back on grand opening marketing and inventory levels and things like that where the supply chain got really tight we favored existing stores versus new stores. So that probably drove that reduction in productivity versus what we saw in pre-pandemic periods. I think you mentioned cannibalization, that's been relatively consistent from our calculations, we did increase over the last couple of years and we called that out, we expected that closer to about 100 basis points, that's embedded in our guide. Source: Ken Bull (Five Below CFO) during the Q2 earnings call As Five Below grows its store base, cannibalization will undoubtedly appear to some level, but the company has demonstrated a remarkable ability to densify markets without too much cannibalization. You also have to consider that densification is a tailwind for the supply chain, marketing, and brand recognition. Digging into profitability While many retailers continue to see margins contract, Five Below continued to show excellent cost control. We believe management should get all the credit here, as managing margins is not easy amidst an inflationary environment for a company with "pre-established" price points in most stores. Cost control was a tailwind for margins, but they inevitably contracted due to the slow increase in sales compared to 2021: Made by Best Anchor Stocks The massive pull forward of demand in 2021 helped the company expand its margins as fixed costs were distributed across a larger sales base (leverage). However, now the company is seeing the opposite effect (deleverage) as increased costs related to more stores and additional investments are distributed across a similar sales base. In fact, if we compare Q2 2022 margins to the 2019 period, we can see how they are much more comparable than against 2021: Made by Best Anchor Stocks It's remarkable to see how margins are almost the same considering the inflation levels in both periods. This is just another data point that shows that leverage and cost control are indeed working. Inventories also played an important role this quarter, but we'll go over them when we talk about the qualitative highlights. Solid cash flow and balance sheet The best thing about the release was probably the continued strength of the company's balance sheet, which will allow it to play offense. Operating cash flow came in at $4 million, a significant decrease from the comparable quarter last year. However, we have to take into account that last year's seasonality was muted due to the incentive payments by the government, so this quarter was basically just a return to normal in terms of seasonality: YCharts Regarding the balance sheet, Five Below reported $272 million in cash and short-term investments and no debt. The company does have "debt" related to leases, but it's not financial debt, so management doesn't count it. Five Below's numbers for Q2 were bad, period. This said, as long-term investors, our focus should be on trying to understand how short-term setbacks impact the long-term thesis. For this, we have to look at the qualitative highlights. Qualitative highlights The cause of the worse-than-expected results Results being below expectations were partly caused by the macro environment, but also by management's over-optimism embedded in their expectations. Headwinds are now expected to last longer throughout the year: Taken together, with the macro environment lapping last year's robust sales and trends was more difficult than we had expected. As we shared with you at our Investor Day in March, we expected 2022 to be a very unique year for us given many of these factors I just outlined. While we do see some specific positive emerging drivers for our Q4 performance, we do not see all the headwinds, we just mentioned dissipating in the near-term. As a result, we have reduced our sales and earnings outlook by nearly 3% and 13%, respectively for the year. Source: Joel Anderson (Five Below CEO) during the Q2 earnings call There's no denying that 2022 is proving to be a special year, so we can't blame management for being unable to predict macro. As long-term investors, we don't believe macro trends can be easily predicted, and this is no different for CEOs. What happened to inventories? Inventories are currently the focus metric across the retail industry. The rationale is that as demand decreases and the supply chain eases, many companies will build up too much inventory, leading to markdowns and discounted merchandise. Five Below's inventories were up 64% year over year. While this number is undoubtedly high, it needs some context. First, Five Below suffered some inventory shortages last year during the holiday period, and management doesn't want to repeat the same mistake. For this reason, they have been ramping up inventory which they expect to wind down during the back half of the year: We expect significantly improved in-stocks this year and for our average per-store inventory levels and year-over-year comparisons to moderate significantly as we move through the back half of this year. Source: Ken Bull (Five Below CFO) during the Q2 earnings call Additionally, we have to consider that the company is continuously opening new stores, so obviously, this creates an increase in inventory that isn't necessarily related to slower demand. In this quarter, the average inventory on a per-store basis was up 47% year over year, which is significantly lower than the 64% overall increase. This 47%, however, is not entirely related to units, as higher freight costs are embedded in it. Average total units on a per store basis were up 28% year over year, which is obviously not low but it's something we should not consider worrying about amidst the current environment and especially since it's a part of management's strategy: You are seeing a high number at the end of the second quarter, but that is because we've advanced deliveries because we wanted to make sure we got out ahead of any supply chain disruption so our point was that we'd rather have it in our distribution center than somewhere else, so we really push that. Source: Joel Anderson (Five Below CEO) during the Q2 earnings call Made by Best Anchor Stocks The moral of the story is that context always matters, and no two inventory increases are created alike. Playing offense during tough times Five Below is undoubtedly not going through its best period performance-wise. Still, the company is well positioned to take advantage of an adverse macro environment thanks to its value proposition and solid balance sheet. Management still believes that value will play an important role in an inflationary and recessionary environment, and the company should see customers shifting to their stores. This will be especially true when the season changes customer behavior from the "wants" to the "needs": As you get into the fourth quarter though, as you know, that becomes our needs quarter as opposed to, right now, we're living mostly in the wants business. We did call out how our needs categories outperformed. But our whole box becomes a needs as people think about the holiday and they think about needing to fulfill Christmas gifts and Hanukkah and celebrating the holidays with their families. We become more of a go-to. Source: Joel Anderson (Five Below CEO) during the Q2 earnings call While this explanation makes total sense, we still need to see if it ends up playing out. However, there's a more tangible benefit from a down period right now, which revolves around real estate. Management is seeing increased opportunities in real estate thanks to the uncertain macro environment, which is leading other retailers to close stores: I'm not going to give up all my sources, but publicly I think even several hours ago Bed, Bath and Beyond just announced 150 closures. So for the last decade, retailers have ebbed and flowed and we really haven't seen that dislocation in the last two years like we have in the past. So a significant part of our growth strategy is not about greenfield and I think the dislocation retailers will help us only accelerate and that's what we're starting to see, and hence why we've actually started to give you some insight into 2023, which is probably the earliest we've ever done some of that. Source: Joel Anderson (Five Below CEO) during the Q2 earnings call
|FIVE||US Specialty Retail||US Market|
Return vs Industry: FIVE exceeded the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -36.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: FIVE exceeded the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.
|FIVE Average Weekly Movement||7.1%|
|Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement||7.9%|
|Market Average Movement||6.8%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.5%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: FIVE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.
Volatility Over Time: FIVE's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. It offers accessories, including socks, sunglasses, jewelry, scarves, gloves, hair accessories, athletic tops and bottoms, and t-shirts, as well as nail polishes, lip glosses, fragrances, and branded cosmetics; and items used to complete and personalize living space, such as glitter lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, plush items, pillows, candles, incense, lighting, novelty décor, accent furniture, and related items, as well as provides storage options for the customers room. The company also provides sport balls; team sports merchandise and fitness accessories, such as hand weights, jump ropes, and gym balls; games, including name brand board games, puzzles, collectibles, and toys covering remote control; and pool, beach, and outdoor toys, as well as games and accessories.
Five Below, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
|FIVE fundamental statistics|
Is FIVE overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|FIVE income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$1.88b|
Last Reported Earnings
Jul 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||4.30|
|Net Profit Margin||8.19%|
How did FIVE perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison