Is Welltower’s (WELL) Strong Same-Store NOI Hiding a Deeper Balance Sheet Advantage?

• Recent updates show that Welltower Inc. reported very large normalized FFO growth and 14.5% same-store NOI growth, supported by stronger senior housing demand, occupancy gains, and active portfolio recycling through acquisitions and dispositions.
• A key insight is that this performance is underpinned by low leverage and ample liquidity, which give the healthcare REIT flexibility to pursue growth while managing macroeconomic and interest rate pressures.
• Next, we’ll examine how this strong same-store NOI performance and balance sheet flexibility influence Welltower’s pre-existing investment narrative.

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Welltower Investment Narrative Recap

To own Welltower, you need to believe in a long-term need for senior housing and healthcare real estate, supported by disciplined capital management. The recent surge in normalized FFO and same-store NOI reinforces the short term catalyst of stronger senior housing demand, while low leverage tempers, but does not remove, the risk that higher rates or tighter capital markets could still pressure asset values and margins.

Among recent announcements, the raised 2025 guidance for net income and same-store NOI growth stands out as most relevant. It ties directly to the latest operating momentum, suggesting that current occupancy and pricing strength in the senior housing portfolio are flowing through to earnings expectations, which many investors see as central to the current thesis.

Yet, despite this strength, investors should be aware that higher investment levels and acquisition activity could still strain the balance sheet if...

Read the full narrative on Welltower (it's free!)

Welltower's narrative projects $14.6 billion revenue and $2.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 16.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $0.9 billion from $1.1 billion today.

Uncover how Welltower's forecasts yield a $207.38 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$136 to US$208 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, Welltower’s strong same-store NOI performance and raised guidance highlight why many investors are rethinking how sustained current demand and earnings momentum might influence the company’s future resilience and income generation.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Welltower - why the stock might be worth 29% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Welltower Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Welltower research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Welltower research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Welltower's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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