Getty Realty Corp. Just Recorded A 6.7% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

The yearly results for Getty Realty Corp. (NYSE:GTY) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Getty Realty reported US$155m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.37 beat expectations, being 6.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Getty Realty

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Getty Realty from four analysts is for revenues of US$171.2m in 2022 which, if met, would be a notable 10% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 13% to US$1.17 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$165.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.18 in 2022. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$33.93, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to Getty Realty's valuation in the near term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Getty Realty, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$37.00 and the most bearish at US$29.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Getty Realty is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Getty Realty's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Getty Realty's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Getty Realty to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Getty Realty. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Getty Realty analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Getty Realty (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.