Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. Just Recorded A 103% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a good week for Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.9% to US$15.23. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$105m were what the analysts expected, Broadstone Net Lease surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.35 per share, an impressive 103% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Broadstone Net Lease

Taking into account the latest results, Broadstone Net Lease's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$427.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 28% to US$0.69 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$430.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.70 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$17.83, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Broadstone Net Lease at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Broadstone Net Lease's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Broadstone Net Lease's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Broadstone Net Lease's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Broadstone Net Lease going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Broadstone Net Lease (2 can't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.