AvalonBay Communities (AVB): Revisiting Valuation After Asset Sales Plan and Aggressive 2025 Buybacks

AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is back in the spotlight after revealing at Nareit’s REITworld Conference that it plans to sell three apartment communities and has been aggressively buying back its own stock in 2025.

See our latest analysis for AvalonBay Communities.

Those planned asset sales and hefty buybacks come after a tough stretch, with the share price down sharply on a year to date basis while the five year total shareholder return remains solidly positive. This suggests that long term holders are still ahead even as recent momentum has cooled.

If this kind of portfolio reshaping has you rethinking your income and defensiveness mix, it could be a good moment to explore healthcare stocks as potential complementary ideas.

With shares lagging even as management doubles down through sizable buybacks and targeted asset sales, is AvalonBay now trading at a meaningful discount to its intrinsic value, or are markets already pricing in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.5% Undervalued

With AvalonBay Communities last closing at $176.34 against a narrative fair value near $203.79, the framework points to meaningful upside if its assumptions play out.

Record low levels of new multifamily supply in AvalonBay's core markets through at least 2026, alongside high barriers to entry and permitting, are expected to alleviate competitive pressures and support higher margins and same store NOI growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what happens when solid rent growth collides with shrinking margins and a richer future earnings multiple than peers? The projections behind this fair value knit together demand, pricing power, and profitability in a way that could reshape how you think about a residential REIT at this point in the cycle. Curious which assumptions really carry the valuation story and how sensitive they are to slower growth or softer spreads?

Result: Fair Value of $203.79 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside case could unravel if leasing spreads weaken further or regulatory frictions in key coastal markets squeeze margins more than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this AvalonBay Communities narrative.

Build Your Own AvalonBay Communities Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a customized view in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AvalonBay Communities research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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