Pfizer (PFE) Valuation Check After Positive Phase 3 Wins and New Obesity Drug Licensing Deal

Pfizer (PFE) just delivered a one two punch of pipeline news, with positive Phase 3 results in cancer and hemophilia, plus a fresh obesity drug licensing deal, and the stock is starting to reflect that shift.

See our latest analysis for Pfizer.

Those wins are starting to chip away at a gloomy narrative, with Pfizer’s 30 day share price return of 3.15% and 90 day share price return of 8.16% hinting at rebuilding momentum despite a still negative year to date move and a mixed longer term total shareholder return record.

If this kind of pipeline reset has your attention, it is also worth scanning other potential turnaround and compounding stories across big pharma by exploring pharma stocks with solid dividends.

Yet even after a double dose of good news and a nearly 12% discount to average analyst targets, shares still trade at a steep implied intrinsic discount. So is Pfizer a contrarian opportunity, or is the market already reflecting its potential rebound?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.1% Undervalued

With Pfizer closing at $25.85 versus a most popular narrative fair value near $29, the story frames today’s price as a discounted entry into an earnings rebuild.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $12.8 billion (and earnings per share of $2.23) by about September 2028, up from $10.7 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $15.1 billion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies paying a higher multiple on shrinking topline yet rising margins and earnings per share, all discounted at under 7 percent, into today’s price? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $29.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering risks around U.S. drug pricing reforms and looming patent expirations for key oncology blockbusters could still derail the expected earnings rebuild.

Find out about the key risks to this Pfizer narrative.

Build Your Own Pfizer Narrative

If you see the story differently, or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Pfizer research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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Before you move on, lock in a more complete watchlist by using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover fresh, data driven opportunities beyond Pfizer alone.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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