TG Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TGTX) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings And Analysts Are Lifting Their Estimates

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 20% over the past week following TG Therapeutics, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TGTX) latest first-quarter results. Results overall weren't great; even though revenues of US$63m beat expectations by 16%, statutory losses ballooned to US$0.07 per share, substantially worse than the analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for TG Therapeutics

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering TG Therapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$308.7m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 72% to US$0.079 in the same period. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$267.6m and US$0.11 per share in losses. So we can see that the latest results have sparked a pretty clear upgrade to expectations, with higher revenues expected to lead to profit sooner than previously forecast.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.9% to US$31.50per share. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic TG Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$49.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TG Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 95% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that TG Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect TG Therapeutics to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TG Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for TG Therapeutics that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.