Things Look Grim For Repligen Corporation (NASDAQ:RGEN) After Today's Downgrade

The analysts covering Repligen Corporation (NASDAQ:RGEN) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from 14 analysts covering Repligen is for revenues of US$647m in 2023, implying a chunky 11% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to tumble 56% to US$1.08 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$729m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.68 in 2023. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Repligen's prospects, administering a measurable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

See our latest analysis for Repligen

Analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$198, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Repligen's valuation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 21% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 32% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Repligen's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Repligen. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Repligen.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Repligen going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.