Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) Is Down 8.9% After $475M Equity Raise to Fund Axpaxli Trials — Has the Bull Case Changed?

• In late September 2025, Ocular Therapeutix completed a follow-on equity offering, raising approximately US$475 million through the sale of nearly 37.9 million common shares at US$12.53 per share, to fund pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials and commercialization preparations for its lead candidate, Axpaxli, in ophthalmology.
• This substantial capital infusion underscores the company's commitment to advancing treatments for retinal diseases and provides resources for scaling manufacturing capabilities and pre-commercialization activities.
• We'll now explore how this major capital raise to advance late-stage clinical trials could alter Ocular Therapeutix's investment outlook.

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Ocular Therapeutix Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in Ocular Therapeutix, you need to believe that its lead candidate, AXPAXLI, will achieve late-stage clinical success, secure regulatory approval, and support long-term growth in large retinal disease markets. The new US$475 million equity raise is a material boost to the company’s financial resources and should directly strengthen the most important near-term catalyst, Phase 3 trial readouts for AXPAXLI. However, the biggest risk remains any negative outcome or delay in these late-stage studies, which could heavily impact future prospects.

The recent FDA agreement on the Phase 3 trial design for AXPAXLI in non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy is a significant milestone, aligning regulatory expectations and potentially de-risking a key clinical path. This aligns closely with the central catalyst of upcoming trial results and highlights how the capital raise will likely support both study completion and future commercialization efforts.

But on the other hand, investors should also be aware that if late-stage trial results for AXPAXLI...

Read the full narrative on Ocular Therapeutix (it's free!)

Ocular Therapeutix's narrative projects $192.9 million revenue and $44.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 50.4% yearly revenue growth and a $261.5 million increase in earnings from -$216.7 million today.

Uncover how Ocular Therapeutix's forecasts yield a $20.17 fair value, a 77% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Private members of the Simply Wall St Community posted three fair value estimates for Ocular Therapeutix ranging from just US$5.02 up to US$30.73 per share. While many expect strong revenue growth, the stakes remain high as late-stage clinical trials and regulatory outcomes could shape the company’s ultimate trajectory. Explore how others see it and compare your view today.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ocular Therapeutix - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Ocular Therapeutix Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ocular Therapeutix research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ocular Therapeutix research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ocular Therapeutix's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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