Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Ocular Therapeutix's seven analysts is for revenues of US$74m in 2023, which would reflect a substantial 48% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.88 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$95m and US$0.74 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Pharmaceuticals industry.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ocular Therapeutix's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 37% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 65% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ocular Therapeutix is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Ocular Therapeutix. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. After a cut like that, investors could be forgiven for thinking analysts are a lot more bearish on Ocular Therapeutix, and a few readers might choose to steer clear of the stock.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ocular Therapeutix analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.