Why Novavax (NVAX) Is Up 7.6% After Japan Approves New Omicron Vaccine and Triggers Royalties

• Novavax recently announced that a milestone payment and future royalties have been triggered through Takeda's regulatory approval in Japan for the Nuvaxovid COVID-19 vaccine, formulated for the Omicron LP.8.1 variant and approved for broader age groups as both an initial and booster immunization.
• This agreement not only delivers immediate financial benefits to Novavax but also reflects significantly improved collaboration and licensing terms that could support recurring royalty streams this vaccination season.
• We’ll now explore how regulatory approval unlocking milestone and royalty revenues may reshape Novavax’s overall investment thesis.

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Novavax Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Novavax, you need to believe in the company's ability to convert regulatory milestones into meaningful, recurring revenue streams through global partnerships amid an increasingly competitive vaccine market. The recent Takeda milestone and future royalties in Japan are immediate positives, but the core short-term catalyst, sustaining COVID-19 vaccine demand, remains unchanged, and ongoing reliance on partner-driven revenue is still the biggest operational risk right now.

The recent FDA approval of the Nuvaxovid 2025-2026 formula for vulnerable populations in the US is the most relevant supporting announcement. Regulatory momentum in major markets continues to shape both near-term financial outcomes and the pace at which new product approvals can drive growth or offset risks tied to shifting pandemic vaccine demand.

By contrast, investors should also be aware of potential downside if milestone payments slow or key partners fail to hit commercial goals…

Read the full narrative on Novavax (it's free!)

Novavax's narrative projects $348.5 million in revenue and $55.9 million in earnings by 2028. This requires a 31.4% annual revenue decline and an earnings decrease of $366.9 million from the current earnings of $422.8 million.

Uncover how Novavax's forecasts yield a $12.50 fair value, a 57% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen members of the Simply Wall St Community value Novavax between US$2.49 and US$220 per share, showing huge differences in opinion. With recurring revenue still tied to successful partner commercialization, consider multiple viewpoints when evaluating Novavax’s future prospects.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Novavax - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Novavax Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Novavax research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Novavax's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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