Is Novavax's (NVAX) Profit Swing Revealing a Shift in Its Long-Term Growth Strategy?

• Novavax, Inc. recently reported its second quarter and first half 2025 earnings, with quarterly revenue at US$239.24 million and net income of US$106.51 million, reflecting declines from the same period last year, while six-month revenue and net income saw substantial growth to US$905.9 million and US$625.15 million, respectively.
• The contrasting quarterly and six-month results highlight shifting business momentum, as significant gains in the first half were paired with a softer most recent quarter.
• We’ll explore how Novavax’s strong six-month profitability influences its investment narrative amid market expectations and ongoing partnership developments.

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Novavax Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Novavax shareholder today, you need to believe in the company's ability to leverage its proven vaccine technologies and partnerships to secure recurring revenue, even as COVID-19 vaccine demand fluctuates. The latest quarterly results signal temporary revenue softness, but do not appear to alter the main short-term catalyst: milestone and royalty streams from partners. The biggest risk remains the company’s dependence on partner-driven commercialization and regulatory progress, as delays or underperformance here could sharply impact earnings.

Among recent company developments, the FDA approval of the Nuvaxovid Biologics License Application in May stands out, as it triggered a substantial milestone payment and strengthens Novavax's partnership-driven revenue model. This directly supports the short-term growth narrative, underscoring the importance of successful regulatory outcomes for both cash flow and investor confidence.

By contrast, investors should also be aware that delays in partner-led commercialization or regulatory approvals could pressure Novavax’s...

Read the full narrative on Novavax (it's free!)

Novavax's narrative projects $348.5 million revenue and $55.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 31.4% annual revenue decline and a decrease of $366.9 million in earnings from $422.8 million today.

Uncover how Novavax's forecasts yield a $13.14 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve individual Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Novavax span from US$2.50 to US$220, with most clustered below US$25. Amid these varied forecasts, the company’s reliance on partners achieving key commercialization and regulatory milestones could shape outcomes far from consensus; consider how your expectations compare to these diverse viewpoints.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Novavax - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Novavax Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Novavax research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Novavax's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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