Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a pretty great week for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$119 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.08 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$573m and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Neurocrine Biosciences after the latest results.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Neurocrine Biosciences. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Neurocrine Biosciences' 22 analysts is for revenues of US$2.69b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 29% to US$3.97. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.97 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$159, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Neurocrine Biosciences at US$192 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$115. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Neurocrine Biosciences shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Neurocrine Biosciences' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 15% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Neurocrine Biosciences is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Neurocrine Biosciences. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Neurocrine Biosciences going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Neurocrine Biosciences , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.