Analysts' Revenue Estimates For Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) Are Surging Higher

Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Marinus Pharmaceuticals will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 4.3% to US$5.80 over the past 7 days. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?

After this upgrade, Marinus Pharmaceuticals' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$59m in 2022. This would be a substantial 112% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 22% to US$2.24. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$35m and losses of US$2.41 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

Check out our latest analysis for Marinus Pharmaceuticals

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$29.63, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marinus Pharmaceuticals at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Marinus Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3x annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 92% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Marinus Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Marinus Pharmaceuticals' prospects. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at Marinus Pharmaceuticals.

Analysts are clearly in love with Marinus Pharmaceuticals at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as a short cash runway. You can learn more, and discover the 2 other flags we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.