Analysts Are Updating Their Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results

A week ago, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Mirum Pharmaceuticals outperformed estimates, with revenues of US$90m beating estimates by 10%. Statutory losses were US$0.30, 35% smaller thanthe analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Mirum Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mirum Pharmaceuticals' ten analysts is for revenues of US$416.5m in 2025. This reflects a huge 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 50% to US$1.03. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$404.7m and losses of US$0.91 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Mirum Pharmaceuticals even after this update; although they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a notable increase in per-share losses.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$60.45, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mirum Pharmaceuticals at US$71.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$39.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mirum Pharmaceuticals shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 28% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 73% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Mirum Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Mirum Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.