How Investors Are Reacting To Gilead Sciences (GILD) Expanding HIV Drug Access and Delaying Generics

• Gilead Sciences recently announced a partnership with the Trump administration and The Global Fund to expand access to its HIV prevention drug to millions worldwide, while also securing a settlement delaying generic Biktarvy entry in the US until 2036.
• This combination of strengthened market exclusivity and expanded global reach highlights Gilead's ability to reinforce both its international footprint and long-term product revenue streams.
• We'll examine how this expanded HIV prevention partnership could shift Gilead's investment narrative and future growth opportunities.

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Gilead Sciences Investment Narrative Recap

To believe in Gilead Sciences as a shareholder, you have to expect the company’s HIV leadership and its push into global prevention will support resilient revenue, even as policy and pricing threats linger. The recent HIV partnership with the Trump administration and The Global Fund serves to strengthen short-term international catalysts, but does not materially reduce the risk posed by long-term pricing and policy headwinds in developed markets.

One of the most relevant recent developments is Gilead’s settlement, delaying US generic Biktarvy until 2036. While this supports near-term exclusivity, it does not eliminate the future challenge of patent cliffs and an earnings base highly leveraged to HIV drugs. Investors should keep both catalysts and structural risks in mind when evaluating how new partnerships may reshape long-term expectations.

By contrast, a closer look at recent payer moves, like CVS Health excluding Gilead’s HIV prevention shot, highlights another risk investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Gilead Sciences (it's free!)

Gilead Sciences' outlook anticipates $32.3 billion in revenue and $10.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This projection assumes a 3.8% annual revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of $3.7 billion from the current $6.3 billion.

Uncover how Gilead Sciences' forecasts yield a $126.31 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were looking for US$33.9 billion in projected revenue and US$10.8 billion in earnings by 2028. If you see Gilead’s international product launches and exclusivity wins as margin-boosting, you might share their outlook, but news like major coverage exclusions could challenge that confidence and shift expectations, so opinions can differ widely, and it’s worth seeing what else might drive debate on Gilead’s future.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Gilead Sciences - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Gilead Sciences Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Gilead Sciences research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Gilead Sciences research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Gilead Sciences' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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