Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) After Its Latest Results

There's been a notable change in appetite for Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 14% to US$1.18. It looks like weak result overall, with ongoing losses and revenues of US$40m falling short of analyst predictions. The losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share (statutory) loss of US$0.03 being 22% smaller than what the analysts had presumed. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Geron. View them for free.

Following the latest results, Geron's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$198.7m in 2025. This would be a substantial 71% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 44% to US$0.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$223.3m and losses of US$0.12 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for Geron

The average price target fell 11% to US$3.69, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Geron's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Geron at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.50. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 104% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 97% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 18% per year. So although Geron is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Geron's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Geron's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Geron analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Geron you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.