Upgrade: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Increase To Their Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ESPR) Forecasts

Shareholders in Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ESPR) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.

After the upgrade, the twelve analysts covering Esperion Therapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$153m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 102% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 42% to US$1.78. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$123m and losses of US$2.10 per share in 2023. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

View our latest analysis for Esperion Therapeutics

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$11.75, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Esperion Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Esperion Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 102% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Esperion Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Esperion Therapeutics' prospects. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Esperion Therapeutics could be a good candidate for more research.

Analysts are definitely bullish on Esperion Therapeutics, but no company is perfect. Indeed, you should know that there are several potential concerns to be aware of, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. For more information, you can click through to our platform to learn more about this and the 3 other warning signs we've identified .

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.