Some Analysts Just Cut Their CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) Estimates

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following this downgrade, CureVac's seven analysts are forecasting 2023 revenues to be €66m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to see a sharp uptick, reaching €1.26. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €80m and losses of €1.15 per share in 2023. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for CureVac

The consensus price target fell 8.9% to €15.88, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on CureVac, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €24.08 and the most bearish at €10.24 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 1.8% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 44% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 14% per year. It's pretty clear that CureVac's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at CureVac. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of CureVac's future valuation. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on CureVac after today.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple CureVac analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.