Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) After Its Latest Results

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of €67m missing analyst predictions by 8.2%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of €1.32 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for CureVac

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CureVac's five analysts is for revenues of €73.3m in 2023, which would reflect a solid 8.8% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around €1.12. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of €80.3m and €1.15 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

The consensus price target fell 8.8% to US$17.54, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic CureVac analyst has a price target of US$24.11 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.26. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that CureVac's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 44% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that CureVac is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CureVac. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for CureVac going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with CureVac , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.