We Think Cara Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CARA) Can Afford To Drive Business Growth

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Cara Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CARA) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

See our latest analysis for Cara Therapeutics

When Might Cara Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. In September 2022, Cara Therapeutics had US$156m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was US$57m. That means it had a cash runway of about 2.8 years as of September 2022. Notably, however, analysts think that Cara Therapeutics will break even (at a free cash flow level) before then. If that happens, then the length of its cash runway, today, would become a moot point. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

Is Cara Therapeutics' Revenue Growing?

Given that Cara Therapeutics actually had positive free cash flow last year, before burning cash this year, we'll focus on its operating revenue to get a measure of the business trajectory. The harsh truth is that operating revenue dropped 71% in the last year, which is quite problematic for a cash burning company. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Easily Can Cara Therapeutics Raise Cash?

Given its problematic fall in revenue, Cara Therapeutics shareholders should consider how the company could fund its growth, if it turns out it needs more cash. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Cara Therapeutics has a market capitalisation of US$659m and burnt through US$57m last year, which is 8.6% of the company's market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

So, Should We Worry About Cara Therapeutics' Cash Burn?

It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way Cara Therapeutics is burning through its cash. In particular, we think its cash runway stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. Although we do find its falling revenue to be a bit of a negative, once we consider the other metrics mentioned in this article together, the overall picture is one we are comfortable with. Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. Looking at all the measures in this article, together, we're not worried about its rate of cash burn; the company seems well on top of its medium-term spending needs. When you don't have traditional metrics like earnings per share and free cash flow to value a company, many are extra motivated to consider qualitative factors such as whether insiders are buying or selling shares. Please Note: Cara Therapeutics insiders have been trading shares, according to our data. Click here to check whether insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course Cara Therapeutics may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.