Arvinas Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Arvinas's revenue and earnings are forecast to decline at 2.7% and 7.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to decline by 1.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -186.6% in 3 years.
Key information
-7.3%
Earnings growth rate
-1.18%
EPS growth rate
| Pharmaceuticals earnings growth | 14.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | -2.7% |
| Future return on equity | -186.63% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 04 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 01
ARVN: Early Neurology Readouts And Cash Runway Will Drive Bullish Repricing
Analysts have nudged Arvinas' implied price target higher by a few dollars per share, reflecting updated models after recent Q4 results, early approval for Vepdeg, and a fuller view of the upcoming data cycle for programs like ARV-102 and other 2026 readouts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Arvinas clusters around early approval for Vepdeg, the updated Q4 models, and a more detailed path for ARV-102 and other 2026 data events.
Narrative Update • Apr 17
ARVN: Upcoming Neurology Data Readouts Will Challenge Current Share Price Assumptions
Narrative Update on Arvinas Analysts have lifted their average price targets on Arvinas by several dollars per share, into a mid-teens to around $20 range. This reflects updated models after recent quarterly results, a busy calendar of expected ARV-102 data readouts across neurological indications, and views on the company’s multiyear cash runway.Narrative Update • Apr 03
ARVN: 2026 Neurology Readouts And Cash Runway Will Drive Bullish Reassessment
Analysts have modestly raised the Arvinas fair value estimate from $14.56 to $14.88, reflecting higher Street price targets after recent Q4 model updates, expanded program timelines, and detailed cash runway assessments across multiple firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research presents a mixed but generally constructive picture for Arvinas, with several firms adjusting price targets higher following the Q4 update and program milestones.
Narrative Update • Mar 20
ARVN: 2026 Neurology Readouts And Cash Runway Will Drive Future Upside
The analyst price target for Arvinas has moved from $18 to $21, with analysts pointing to updated models that reflect revised assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as they factor in recent quarterly results and upcoming clinical data readouts. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of higher price targets on Arvinas, with bullish analysts pointing to refreshed models following quarterly results and upcoming clinical data.Narrative Update • Mar 05
ARVN: 2026 Neurology Readouts And Cash Runway Will Balance Execution Risks
Narrative Update on Arvinas The analyst price target for Arvinas has moved higher by $1.75, with analysts tying their updated views to refreshed post earnings models, a higher fair value estimate of $14.56, and anticipated 2026 data readouts for ARV-102 and other pipeline programs. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of higher price targets on Arvinas, with analysts revising their models after the latest quarterly report and company updates.Narrative Update • Feb 19
ARVN: New Leadership And Lymphoma Program Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have maintained their $18.00 price target for Arvinas, with updated assumptions that reflect adjusted views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Arvinas appointed Randy Teel, Ph.D., as Chief Executive Officer, effective February 12, 2026.Narrative Update • Feb 05
ARVN: Hematology Data And Preclinical Combination Results Will Balance Cash Burn Risks
Analysts have nudged their price target on Arvinas slightly higher to about $12.81 from $12.75, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue contraction, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Arvinas shared preclinical data for ARV-393, an investigational PROTAC BCL6 degrader, in combination with glofitamab at the 67th American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting and Exposition in Orlando, Florida (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 27
Companies Like Arvinas (NASDAQ:ARVN) Are In A Position To Invest In Growth
Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the...Narrative Update • Jan 22
ARVN: New Hematology And KRAS Data Will Balance Cash Burn Risks
Narrative Update on Arvinas The analyst price target for Arvinas has moved slightly higher from US$12.44 to US$12.75. Analysts attribute this adjustment to updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, profit margin, and future P/E.Narrative Update • Jan 07
ARVN: Future Returns Will Balance Breast Cancer Setbacks And Cash Burn Risks
Analysts have nudged their price target for Arvinas slightly higher to about $12.44 from $12.31, while highlighting rising concerns that competitive progress in hormone receptor positive, HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer could leave vepdegestrant at risk of becoming less relevant and keep investor focus on cash burn. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the updated average price target of about $12.44 as an indication that some on the Street still see room for upside relative to the most cautious views, even as competitive pressure builds around vepdegestrant.Narrative Update • Dec 16
ARVN: Early Neuroscience Pipeline Will Drive Future Upside Despite Breast Cancer Reset
Analysts have sharply cut their price target on Arvinas to about $18 from over $60. The change reflects heightened competitive pressure on vepdegestrant, uncertainty around out-licensing timelines, and a reset of expectations toward the company’s earlier-stage oncology and neuroscience pipeline.Narrative Update • Dec 02
ARVN: Refocus On Neuroscience And Cost Discipline Will Balance Risks And Opportunities
Analysts have revised Arvinas' price target lower. Notable cuts include Goldman's reduction to $6 from $8, reflecting heightened uncertainty around vepdegestrant's outlook and increased competitive pressures in breast cancer therapies.Seeking Alpha • Nov 24
Arvinas: Approvable, But Asset Looks Mediocre, Initiating With A Hold Rating
Summary Arvinas is rated HOLD due to vepdegestrant's strong ESR1-mutant data but limited commercial scope after missing the ITT endpoint in VERITAC-2. Vepdegestrant likely faces a niche ESR1-mutant market, with tough competition from other SERDs and uncertainty after Pfizer's reduced commitment. ARVN's early-stage pipeline (KRAS G12D, BCL6, LRRK2) remains high-risk and unvalidated outside breast cancer, limiting near-term upside. I remain on the sidelines, awaiting more compelling catalysts, as the current risk-reward does not justify initiating a position in ARVN. I initiate Arvinas with a hold rating and a target price of $12. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Nov 18
ARVN: Core Oncology And Neuroscience Focus Will Drive Share Recovery Ahead
Arvinas' analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $17.44 to $12.31 per share. Analysts cite increased competitive risks for vepdegestrant along with heightened uncertainty surrounding the company's future commercial prospects.Narrative Update • Sep 25
Precision Therapies Will Meet Demand Despite Clinical And Regulatory Risks
Arvinas’ consensus price target was reduced to $17.44, reflecting increased commercialization uncertainty for vepdegestrant following the decision to seek a third-party partner, restructuring, and delays to peak sales estimates despite ongoing support for the early-stage pipeline. Analyst Commentary Recent decision by Arvinas and Pfizer to seek a third-party partner for vepdegestrant has introduced significant uncertainty around commercialization timing and strategy, prompting downside risk to valuation.Analysis Article • Sep 09
Improved Revenues Required Before Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) Stock's 26% Jump Looks Justified
Arvinas, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ARVN ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand...Analysis Article • Jun 01
We're Not Very Worried About Arvinas' (NASDAQ:ARVN) Cash Burn Rate
Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the...Analysis Article • May 01
Arvinas, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ARVN) Shares Bounce 37% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry
Arvinas, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ARVN ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 37% in the last...
New Narrative • Mar 24
Phase III And PROTAC Data Will Advance Pipeline Despite Hurdles
Successful trials and partnerships in oncology could support Arvinas' transition to commercial operations, driving growth and revenue potential.Seeking Alpha • Mar 14
Arvinas: Veritac-2 ITT Failure Confirms Limited Prospects
Summary Arvinas' Vepdegestrant failed to show significant improvement over fulvestrant in the VERITAC-2 trial in the ITT population, leading to a 52% stock drop. Arvinas' enterprise value plummeted to -$400M, with a high cash burn rate and no advanced pipeline candidates to offset losses. Despite a healthy cash balance, the ARVN's burn rate and lack of near-term catalysts make it an unattractive investment; reiterate sell rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 12
Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) Not Doing Enough For Some Investors As Its Shares Slump 56%
Arvinas, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ARVN ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 56...Seeking Alpha • Dec 25
Arvinas' Vepdegestrant: Why The Data May Not Hold Up
Summary Arvinas, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotech firm focusing on protein degradation, with its lead candidate, ARV-471, in Phase 3 trials for breast cancer. We believe Arvinas is a short due to weak clinical data for ARV-471, which may not demonstrate compelling efficacy, risking a valuation collapse. Vepdegestrant (ARV-471) shows limited efficacy, likely due to poor bioavailability, and may not outperform existing treatments like fulvestrant in upcoming trials. Given Arvinas' significant cash burn and reliance on ARV-471, we expect a 30-40% stock price decline if Phase 3 results disappoint. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 24
Arvinas (NASDAQ:ARVN) Is In A Good Position To Deliver On Growth Plans
Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and...Analysis Article • Nov 28
Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN)
Arvinas, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:ARVN ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.1x might make it look like a strong sell right...Seeking Alpha • Oct 16
Arvinas: Major Catalyst Ahead, But Its History Gives Me Pause
Summary Arvinas, Inc.'s lead candidate, ARV-471, shows promise in phase 3 trials, especially in ESR1 mutant patients, but has mixed results in wild-type ESR1 patients. Despite past poor performance, recent positive data and a strong cash balance make ARVN a cautiously optimistic investment ahead of upcoming phase 3 data. Financially, Arvinas has a market cap of $1.78bn and a cash balance of $1.23bn, providing a runway of 8–9 quarters. While ARVN has potential, past inconsistent data warrants a cautious approach before investing further, despite promising recent developments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 02
Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) Reported Earnings Last Week And Analysts Are Already Upgrading Their Estimates
A week ago, Arvinas, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ARVN ) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially...Seeking Alpha • Jul 12
Arvinas: Hugely Important Data Catalyst Upcoming - Success May Prove Elusive
Summary Arvinas utilizes PROTAC technology to develop protein degraders, with vepdegestrant as a lead drug candidate in Phase 3 studies. Vepdegestrat will read out data from a large, late-stage study in breast cancer patients this year - a major catalyst to look out for. Data shared to date has been somewhat unconvincing and from small subsets - to secure approval, the drug will need to meet an endpoint of progression-free survival. The drug is also being tested in a Phase 3 study alongside Pfizer's Ibrance - some early promising data is not a cast iron guarantee of success. I'm a little lukewarm on Vepdegestrat's prospects and am downgrading my former "buy" rating to hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 27
Here's Why We're Watching Arvinas' (NASDAQ:ARVN) Cash Burn Situation
We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although Amazon.com made...Seeking Alpha • Mar 03
Arvinas: Behind The Huge Rally
Summary Today, we take a look at Arvinas, Inc., a biotech company that is focused on developing therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. Arvinas is partnered with drug giant Pfizer around its lead drug candidate and the stock has more than tripled over the past four months. The company also ended fiscal year 2023 with over $1.25 billion in cash and marketable securities, sufficient to fund activities until 2027. An analysis around Arvinas follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 25
What Arvinas, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ARVN) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You
Despite an already strong run, Arvinas, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ARVN ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 113 | -261 | -216 | -176 | 10 |
| 12/31/2027 | 81 | -260 | -217 | -175 | 15 |
| 12/31/2026 | 93 | -232 | -228 | -282 | 17 |
| 12/31/2025 | 263 | -81 | -276 | -274 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 312 | -58 | -329 | -327 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 373 | -73 | -399 | -396 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 427 | -47 | -253 | -251 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 263 | -199 | -261 | -259 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 161 | -309 | -260 | -258 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 93 | -323 | -217 | -215 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 71 | -355 | -356 | -354 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 79 | -367 | -351 | -348 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 159 | -295 | -340 | -336 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 158 | -298 | -323 | -318 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 137 | -301 | -313 | -308 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 131 | -282 | -280 | -273 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 127 | -253 | -246 | -238 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 103 | -233 | 503 | 510 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 75 | -213 | 536 | 541 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 54 | -191 | 555 | 559 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 23 | -180 | 562 | 566 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 21 | -164 | -142 | -138 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 21 | -139 | -118 | -112 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 26 | -119 | -96 | -90 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 24 | -99 | -83 | -77 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 47 | -86 | -59 | -53 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 45 | -78 | -52 | -45 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 43 | -70 | -47 | -41 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 42 | -65 | N/A | -37 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 15 | -173 | N/A | -50 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 14 | -179 | N/A | -48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 14 | -240 | N/A | -16 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 13 | -233 | N/A | 24 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 12 | -114 | N/A | 28 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 10 | -98 | N/A | 31 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 8 | -29 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 7 | -12 | N/A | -19 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARVN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: ARVN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: ARVN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ARVN's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-2.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ARVN's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.7% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ARVN is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 01:41 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Arvinas, Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Peter Lawson | Barclays |
| Etzer Darout | Barclays |
| Tazeen Ahmad | BofA Global Research |