News Flash: Analysts Just Made A Notable Upgrade To Their Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) Forecasts

Shareholders in Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The revenue forecast for this year has experienced a facelift, with analysts now much more optimistic on its sales pipeline.

Following the latest upgrade, the current consensus, from the 18 analysts covering Arvinas, is for revenues of US$155m in 2023, which would reflect a noticeable 2.1% reduction in Arvinas' sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$6.13 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$132m and losses of US$6.62 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

View our latest analysis for Arvinas

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$69.39, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Arvinas' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.1% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 47% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Arvinas is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Arvinas is moving incrementally towards profitability. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Arvinas.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arvinas going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.