Arvinas, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ARVN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.2b

Arvinas Valuation

Is ARVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$81.79
Fair Value
78.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ARVN ($17.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($81.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARVN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARVN?

Key metric: As ARVN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ARVN. This is calculated by dividing ARVN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ARVN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.6x
SalesUS$263.40m
Market CapUS$1.22b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ARVN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ARVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.9x
HROW Harrow
6.1x36.7%US$1.0b
COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical
1.6x2.5%US$939.4m
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals
2x9.8%US$1.1b
OCUL Ocular Therapeutix
17.9x46.2%US$1.1b
ARVN Arvinas
4.6x23.6%US$1.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ARVN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (6.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ARVN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

67 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VTRS Viatris
0.9x-1.3%US$13.43b
OGN Organon
0.6x0.3%US$3.99b
PRGO Perrigo
0.8x3.6%US$3.46b
BHC Bausch Health Companies
0.3x-0.07%US$2.69b
ARVN 4.6xIndustry Avg. 3.0xNo. of Companies67PS048121620+
67 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ARVN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARVN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARVN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.6x
Fair PS Ratio8.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ARVN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$17.77
US$60.70
+241.6%
29.3%US$110.00US$28.00n/a20
Feb ’26US$17.61
US$63.25
+259.2%
27.5%US$110.00US$28.00n/a20
Jan ’26US$19.17
US$63.25
+229.9%
27.5%US$110.00US$28.00n/a20
Dec ’25US$26.72
US$62.95
+135.6%
28.2%US$110.00US$28.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$26.90
US$63.61
+136.5%
28.8%US$110.00US$28.00n/a18
Oct ’25US$24.88
US$65.78
+164.4%
27.2%US$110.00US$30.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$26.16
US$65.78
+151.4%
27.2%US$110.00US$30.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$26.78
US$66.39
+147.9%
25.4%US$110.00US$38.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$25.98
US$68.44
+163.5%
23.1%US$110.00US$38.00n/a18
Jun ’25US$33.14
US$68.44
+106.5%
23.1%US$110.00US$38.00n/a18
May ’25US$32.48
US$69.89
+115.2%
23.1%US$110.00US$38.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$40.40
US$70.89
+75.5%
21.0%US$110.00US$49.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$47.30
US$70.61
+49.3%
21.6%US$110.00US$49.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$45.65
US$64.42
+41.1%
37.6%US$110.00US$20.00US$17.6119
Jan ’25US$41.16
US$60.72
+47.5%
42.5%US$110.00US$20.00US$19.1718
Dec ’24US$23.60
US$57.28
+142.7%
48.4%US$110.00US$20.00US$26.7218
Nov ’24US$15.98
US$60.38
+277.8%
38.8%US$95.00US$24.00US$26.9016
Oct ’24US$19.64
US$67.06
+241.5%
31.0%US$95.00US$27.00US$24.8816
Sep ’24US$27.85
US$69.11
+148.2%
31.8%US$110.00US$27.00US$26.1618
Aug ’24US$24.86
US$72.22
+190.5%
28.3%US$110.00US$27.00US$26.7818
Jul ’24US$24.82
US$70.05
+182.2%
31.1%US$110.00US$27.00US$25.9819
Jun ’24US$21.73
US$71.10
+227.2%
30.5%US$110.00US$27.00US$33.1420
May ’24US$27.04
US$74.95
+177.2%
36.9%US$151.00US$30.00US$32.4819
Apr ’24US$27.32
US$74.95
+174.3%
36.9%US$151.00US$30.00US$40.4019
Mar ’24US$30.55
US$74.20
+142.9%
36.2%US$151.00US$30.00US$47.3020
Feb ’24US$33.47
US$77.20
+130.7%
33.7%US$151.00US$27.00US$45.6520
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts
US$60.70
Fair Value
70.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/22 11:04
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Arvinas, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter LawsonBarclays
null nullBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Etzer DaroutBMO Capital Markets Equity Research