Analysts Just Published A Bright New Outlook For Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ARCT)

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCT) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.

After the upgrade, the eleven analysts covering Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$45m in 2022. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 10.0% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to hold steady at around US$6.18. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$29m and US$6.94 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$49.91, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$140 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 21% annualised growth until the end of 2022. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 4.0% annual decline over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 15% annually. So it looks like Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings is moving incrementally towards profitability. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings could be a good candidate for more research.

Better yet, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings is expected to break-even soon - within the next few years - according to analyst forecasts, which would be a momentous event for shareholders. You can learn more about these forecasts, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.