Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY): Valuation Snapshot Following New Phase 3 Data and Pipeline Progress

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) has caught investor attention after announcing progress on two key fronts. The company has initiated the Phase 3 ZENITH study for zilebesiran in hypertension and shared new HELIOS-B trial data for vutrisiran.

See our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.

It has been a banner year for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with positive clinical updates seeming to spark renewed investor optimism. The stock’s 97% year-to-date share price return underscores strong momentum, while the one-year total shareholder return of nearly 62% reflects both capital gains and dividends. The recent revolving credit facility and encouraging results from late-stage trials showcase a company moving forward on multiple fronts. Participants are clearly rewarding Alnylam’s continued innovation and broadening pipeline.

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With the share price having nearly doubled year to date, the central question is whether Alnylam still represents a strategic entry point for new investors, or if the current price fully factors in the company’s growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 3% Overvalued

With Alnylam Pharmaceuticals closing at $460.46, the most closely tracked narrative views the fair value at $447.15, just slightly below the current trading price. This view sets up a crucial debate about how much future growth is already factored into today’s share price.

The strong track record of rapid health system integration and scalable commercial execution, with SG&A and R&D investments offset by exceptional sales growth, points to the start of meaningful operational leverage. This improves net margins as product revenues outpace fixed cost escalation.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The key element of this narrative is record-breaking earnings and a future profit multiple usually associated with tech leaders. Interested in which bold financial projections support that price target? Dive deeper to see the surprising numbers that drive this fair value calculation.

Result: Fair Value of $447.15 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain if top-selling drugs face tougher price pressures or if heavy R&D spending is not matched by new commercial successes.

Find out about the key risks to this Alnylam Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Sees Undervaluation

While experts tracking multiples flag Alnylam as expensive versus peers, our SWS DCF model paints a different picture. It suggests shares are trading 48% below estimated fair value, indicating a much larger upside than what analyst price targets imply. Could the market be missing Alnylam’s future earning power?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Alnylam Pharmaceuticals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft an independent narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Alnylam Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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