Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT): Valuation Check After New Pfizer Collaborations and Surging 2024 Share Price

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) just landed two non exclusive collaborations with Pfizer that lean heavily on its T cell receptor platform, a material win that could reshape both its revenue trajectory and strategic relevance.

See our latest analysis for Adaptive Biotechnologies.

The stock has been on a strong run, with a year to date share price return above 150 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return above 130 percent, helped by growing clonoSEQ adoption, insider selling headlines, and now the Pfizer collaborations signalling improving growth optionality.

If this kind of deal making has you rethinking where the next big winners could come from, it might be worth scanning healthcare stocks for similar healthcare names building momentum.

With shares up more than 150 percent year to date and still trading at a sizable discount to Wall Street’s target, has Adaptive’s Pfizer fueled pipeline expansion left meaningful upside on the table, or is the market already discounting future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 19.8% Undervalued

Adaptive Biotechnologies latest close at $15.69 sits well below the most followed narrative fair value estimate of $19.57, framing a sizable valuation gap.

Substantial expansion in the MRD clinical pharma pipeline, evidenced by a growing clinical trial backlog (now at $218 million, up 21% over prior year) and increased use of clonoSEQ as a primary endpoint, forecasts future milestone payments and a high-quality revenue stream as regulatory momentum globally accelerates MRD adoption in drug development.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue curve and margin lift this backlog implies, and how rich a future earnings multiple it bakes in? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $19.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained losses and heavy reliance on key partnerships mean any stumble on execution or reimbursement could quickly challenge the undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Adaptive Biotechnologies narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Analysts see upside to $19.86, but the price to sales ratio paints a sharper risk picture. ADPT trades at 9.5 times sales, nearly triple the US Life Sciences average of 3.3 times and well above its 4.8 times fair ratio. This suggests expectations may already be stretched.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Adaptive Biotechnologies Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather test your own assumptions on the numbers, you can build a complete view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Adaptive Biotechnologies research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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