Positive earnings growth hasn't been enough to get Gray Media (NYSE:GTN) shareholders a favorable return over the last three years

This week we saw the Gray Media, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) share price climb by 15%. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 78%. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.

While the stock has risen 15% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Gray Media moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. We like that Gray Media has actually grown its revenue over the last three years. But it's not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Gray Media has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Gray Media's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Gray Media the TSR over the last 3 years was -75%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Gray Media had a tough year, with a total loss of 36% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 9.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Gray Media (at least 2 which are potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Gray Media better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.