Does SiriusXM Play’s Ad-Supported Launch Change the Bull Case for Sirius XM (SIRI)?

• Earlier this week, SiriusXM launched SiriusXM Play, its first low-cost, ad-supported subscription package offering access to more than 130 channels with limited ads for under US$7 per month, initially on a limited basis with future expansion planned.
• This move highlights SiriusXM's effort to grow its audience by making its premium curated content more accessible while strengthening its advertising business with advanced digital ad capabilities set for future rollout.
• We'll explore how SiriusXM Play's ad-supported entry could reshape the company's narrative by targeting value-focused listeners and boosting advertising growth.

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Sirius XM Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To believe in Sirius XM Holdings as a shareholder, you need confidence in its ability to expand its subscriber base and grow advertising revenue, especially as digital audio evolves. The launch of SiriusXM Play, the company’s new low-cost, ad-supported tier, addresses the key short-term catalyst of boosting advertising revenue and listener reach, but whether it materially reverses recent subscriber declines or sluggish ad growth will depend on user adoption and advertiser demand in the coming quarters. However, with persistent flatness in ad revenue and continued declines in total revenue, competition and pressure on digital audio margins remain a core risk.

Of the company’s recent announcements, the May 2025 bundled streaming partnership with FOX Nation stands out as most relevant, highlighting SiriusXM’s approach to packaging content for value-conscious audiences. This, in combination with SiriusXM Play, signals a commitment to accessibility and cross-platform engagement, as management pursues revenue diversification beyond traditional radio and core in-car offerings. The effectiveness of both moves will be tested against the backdrop of industry headwinds and consumer price sensitivity.

By contrast, investors should be aware of continued pressure in digital advertising, with...

Read the full narrative on Sirius XM Holdings (it's free!)

Sirius XM Holdings is projected to reach $8.5 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a 0.3% annual revenue decline and an earnings increase of $2.8 billion from current earnings of -$1.7 billion.

Uncover how Sirius XM Holdings' forecasts yield a $23.43 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community contributors set fair value estimates for Sirius XM from US$23.43 to US$67.06 across 6 analyses. While many believe broader adoption of new subscription tiers could catalyze revenue, ad market volatility may challenge sustained growth.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Sirius XM Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Sirius XM Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Sirius XM Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Sirius XM Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Sirius XM Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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