Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) Price Target To US$37.68

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Investors in Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.4% to close at US$36.09 following the release of its second-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$864m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.49. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Match Group's 21 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$3.49b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.19, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.15 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Match Group

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 9.0% to US$37.68. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Match Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$49.00 and the most bearish at US$31.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Match Group shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Match Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Match Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Match Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Match Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.